But is this just great for the pre-qualified countries to skip the Semi-finals? Would it be better for all the countries not to be pre-qualified for the Grand Final? If you look at the rankings and the points the countries have received the last eight years, the answer is: Drop the pre-qualifying system, and let's have all countries competing in one of the Semi-finals.
We give more points to songs we have heard before
If you've seen a Semi-final, you are more inclined to give more points to the songs when you hear them again in the Grand Final. If you hear a song for the first time in the Grand Final, statistically you give the song fewer points than if you've heard the song before. The countries that are performing in one of the Semi-finals gets on average 12 points more in the Grand Final every year!
What we've done
All the points to a country in a Grand Final are grouped by:
- Points from the countries that did participate in the same semi-final
- Points from countries that did NOT participate in the same semi-final
Lets have a look at Israel 2015 as an example:
- Israel received 51 points in the Grand Final from the 16 countries that did take part in Semi-final 2 together with Israel
= average 3.19 points per country.
- Israel received 46 points in the Grand Final from the 23 countries that did NOT take part in Semi-final 2
= average 2.00 points per country.
- So Israel received on average 1.19 (3.19 - 2.00) points more in the Grand Final from Semi-final 2-countries than from the other countries.
We have measured the average of the songs and points in the Grand Final, by how many points they have gained from countries that participated in the same semi-final, and countries that did not participate in the same semi-final.
|Year||Average points in Grand Final||Difference|
|countries from |
|countries not from|
- We started to divide all the countries into two groups:
- Countries from same Semi-final: If the country giving the points, and the country receiving the points were in the same Semi-final
- Countries not from same Semi-final: If the country giving the points, and the country receiving the points were NOT in the same Semi-final
- Column 2 & 3: For each of the groups, we calculated the average points to each country in the Grand Final
- Column 4: The difference of the average is between the two groups (column 2 & 3)
- Column 5: This difference of the average is then muliplied by the average numbers of countries participating in a Semi-final the given year, to get the difference in points